CNMI

It is difficult to predict climate change for CNMI and the rest of the Pacific Islands because climate conditions vary with El Niño/La Niña which influences rainfall and sea temperature year to year and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which shifts between cold and warm periods decade-to-decade.  Most climate change predictions for CNMI predict an increase in air and sea surface temperature with moderate confidence and an increase in annual rainfall with lower confidence. These changes will impact reef ecosystems due to heat stress and increased chances of coral bleaching events, as well as the potential for higher sediment loading with increasing rainfall.  For farms and households, excess rainfall in the wet season increases the risk of flooding and crop disease, while drought conditions in the dry season can cause crop stress and increase irrigation costs.  Storm events, especially typhoons, can be extremely destructive both to crops and local infrastructure required to transport food to market and sustain communities, however, the effects of climate change on typhoons is much harder to predict. Although research indicates the potential for fewer tropical storms in the future, tropical storm intensity and the rainfall delivered by these storms is expected to increase.  

For CNMI and other Pacific Islands, climate change may resemble weather extremes already familiar to many Islanders.  For example, El Niño years are typically associated with drought and cooler ocean temperatures on CNMI. During La Niña events, which often immediately follow El Niño, stronger trade winds push warmer waters to the Western Pacific, increasing ocean temperature, sea level and rainfall.  Experience with weather extremes like these may help Pacific Islanders prepare for and anticipate future conditions.  Other aspects of climate change, however, will likely push conditions beyond what has been experienced in the past.